SPY at Resistance.

S&P is up at the top of its rising channel. The red line marks the level the market was roughly when TARP, Lehman and such happened. Definitely a place to take some profits off the table, and not a place to initiate new longs. As for shorts, if a topping pattern sets up I'd definitely get short. Not yet though - I'd expect resistance here but there's nothing saying the market can't break through it given how strong it is, or simply hug the high end of this channel and grind higher for some time. I wouldn't bet on that scenario, but also wouldn't bet against it. Some churning with some kind of topping pattern would make a great setup to get short. We'll see what happens.

Dollar Index Bearish

Interesting to note also that the precious metals held strong through the dollar rally, and broke out before the dollar breakdown. I think this bodes well for precious metals if we get a real push down in the dollar. Ags are dead in the water though.

Dollar

Dollar is only part of the inflation complex that hasn't given confirmation. Dollar chart is basically inverse of the euro chart, so the dollar's next move will depend on what happens in the eurozone with Greece and the other PIIGS.

More on Inflation Complex

Charts for platinum and palladium - forgot to include in prior post.

Inflation Complex in Full Force

The group I'm calling the inflation complex - long physical commodities, short bonds, short dollar - is flashing a massive green light (ie. bullish on inflation). Hyperinflation? No way I'm betting on that, just more inflation than we've seen, and for treasury bonds potentially higher risk premiums.

NBG Preferred

NATGAS - Why You Wait for Confirmation