Thursday, April 15, 2010
SPY at Resistance.
S&P is up at the top of its rising channel. The red line marks the level the market was roughly when TARP, Lehman and such happened. Definitely a place to take some profits off the table, and not a place to initiate new longs. As for shorts, if a topping pattern sets up I'd definitely get short. Not yet though - I'd expect resistance here but there's nothing saying the market can't break through it given how strong it is, or simply hug the high end of this channel and grind higher for some time. I wouldn't bet on that scenario, but also wouldn't bet against it. Some churning with some kind of topping pattern would make a great setup to get short. We'll see what happens.
Dollar Index Bearish
Wednesday, April 7, 2010
Dollar
Inflation Complex in Full Force
The group I'm calling the inflation complex - long physical commodities, short bonds, short dollar - is flashing a massive green light (ie. bullish on inflation). Hyperinflation? No way I'm betting on that, just more inflation than we've seen, and for treasury bonds potentially higher risk premiums.
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
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