Saturday, March 6, 2010

Dollar Retracement vs. Gold

Dollar Index retraced to between 38% and 50% fib retrace in two waves. Also hit measured move of flag from first wave of rally. 200 and 50 weekly averages still pointing down so. Weekly MAs say trend still down. Not taking position, but would rather be short than long from here. See what happens.

Gold is very interesting though. Gold's has been much stronger than the dollar has been weak - gold rocketed to new highs and the dollar never even got down to its prior low. This pattern looks like its continuing - the big dollar rally only caused a little correction on gold's weekly chart. Now dollar is near recent highs but gold is already well off its recent swing low. Weekly looks like bullish flag consolidation. I'm long gold, very bullish so long as it doesn't break below that wide range weekly bar 3 weeks ago. Everyone talks about gold as a short dollar play. The chart is saying there's more to the story - I think gold can rally without a major dollar crash. Sure, if the dollar rally keeps gaining strength that's gonna put pressure on gold. But the pattern has been dollar down, gold up. Dollar flat, gold up. Dollar up, gold pulls back a little or consolidates.

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